As usual, our super legislature rules wrongly. The Extreme Court is a problem that will require balancing the court if we ever take power again.
UPDATE: Friday, Dec 5, 2025 · 10:06:20 AM +00:00
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bilboteach
The Downballot knows the numbers and odds of winning better than I do. There are a *lot* of districts in the TN-07 zone where they are just out of reach. It firms up my understanding of where we stand in Texas.
Sorry optimists and wave advocates, but the numbers don’t lie.
x
So it turns out that, with the TX GOP's new gerrymander, there are no fewer than 18 of what you might call "Aftyn Behn" districts. That is to say, seats between Trump +20 to +25—seats Dems probably won't win, but where they could throw a serious scare into the GOP.
Via @donnermaps.bsky.social
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— The Downballot (@the-downballot.com) December 4, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Super bad redistricting news thanks to our lovely Extreme Court this evening. By a 6-3 decision, the racist Texas maps that will cost us between 2 to 5 seats WILL go into effect for 2026. This is a temporary stay until the Extreme Court rules on the merits but that is unlikely this term and definitely will not happen in time for the 2026 election.
The Supreme Court on Thursday came to the rescue of Texas Republicans, allowing next year’s elections to be held under the state’s congressional redistricting plan favorable to the GOP and pushed by President Donald Trump despite a lower-court ruling that the map likely discriminates on the basis of race.
The justices acted on an emergency request from Texas for quick action because qualifying in the new districts already has begun, with primary elections in March.
The Supreme Court’s order puts the 2-1 ruling blocking the map on hold at least until after the high court issues a final decision in the case. Justice Samuel Alito had previously temporarily blocked the order while the full court considered the Texas appeal.
This was despite a TRUMP judge in Texas writing the majority opinion in a ruling that found the map in question to be a racial gerrymander.
“The map ultimately passed by the Legislature and signed by the Governor — the 2025 Map — achieved all but one of the racial objectives that DOJ demanded,” U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown, a Galveston-based Trump appointee, wrote for the panel majority.
The map now changes Texas-32 and Texas-9 to unwinnable districts for the Democrats. Texas-35 changes from a sure district for us into one the GOP is likely to win. Finally, Texas-28 and Texas-34 remain tossup districts just as they were before this ruling.
This also bodes very poorly for the Callais case the Extreme Court will rule on this term. The Voting Rights Act is probably dead based on this ruling as the “Seditious Six” are likely to gut it. Depending on when they make that ruling, it may be in time for more states to redraw their maps to eliminate VRA protected districts such as Georgia-2, Alabama-2, or Louisiana-6.
We are still favorites to take back the House of Representatives but this ruling will make it more difficult. You can help in the fight by giving what you can to 15 races that we have a good chance of flipping.
GoodNewsRoundup’s fundraiser “splits our donations among the 15 House seats held by Republicans in swing districts. These are seats that were either won by a margin of 4% less and/or were won by Harris in 2024. In other words, these are seats we can win in 2026. Any money you donate will go directly to our 2026 candidate. We only need to flip three of these!” [Goodie]
By using ActBlue and not a PAC, GoodNewsRoundup keeps our funds out of the greedy pockets of Mothership Strategies and other grifters. You may opt out of sharing personal information with candidates.
Again: Take the House in 2026!
For a golden month, we had a shot of coming out ahead in redistricting. Now the best we can do is a wash.
