The EU/UK plan to dump US Treasuries if the US abandons Ukraine starts to hint a growing global risk — the lack of underlying ability to trust. We are seeing it develop but haven’t tied it to the one big risk — are currencies going to cease to function? As Trump continues to destroy the USA’s credibility, the concept of a global currency needs to be examined.
The growth of blockchain based monetary units like Bitcoin are discussed as a way to get away from he binding concept of money as a governmental privilege — that money must be based on a underlying political structure.
But if the US currency becomes a millstone, rather than a bedrock, what happens?
In the 1800s, the Pound Sterlin was that bedrock but it faltered. The the Dollar rose to supremacy. But what comes next?
The Ruble isn’t it, nor is the Rupee. The Yuan — we that gets interesting. Is the world ready for a default currency that is not actually the same as the one it uses for internal purposes? I am not sure that the world would adopt the Yuan.
How about a tokenized currency? Don’t think so as the only ones that would appear to be stable enough are those that are tied to the dollar. Do you really want Bitcoin where the buying power of your account could vary by 30% in a one month period? I didn’t think so.
And this all comes back to trust. Money is only as valuable as your belief that it has value. The Dollar is backed by “the full faith and credit of the USA”. If you don’t trust the US government to keep its word, that promise isn’t worth a lot.
So the question becomes, is there anyone else you trust as much? Because if not, then how do we have currency to use? I don’t think “Musk Dollars” or “Bezos Dollars” are showing up in my house anytime soon.