Far too many around the world consider that if the COP process does not immediately and totally condemn fossil fuels and order the end of their use, then the whole process is a failure. This is not how diplomacy and politics work. You have to build a consensus. As I have been explaining, Saudi Arabia just took an important step in that direction, while refusing to mention fossil fuels directly. Far too many commentators overlook this momentous step forward.
Going off fossil fuels has been mentioned in one official COP document, at COP28. Saudi Arabia was willing to refer to this as the UAE consensus in the agreed-on COP30 declaration, even though refusing to make another explicit statement. Baby steps. Duck bites.
Many others took much more direct steps proclaiming meaningful goals adopted by dozens of countries while we work on how to lure the rest into sanity. My personal preference is to talk about the trillions of dollars in $$Real Money$$ to be made on cheaper and more reliable and cleaner energy, vs. $trillions to be lost in climate catastrophes if we don’t. It is only those blinded by petrodollars and past privilege who refuse to see the vast profits we are offering them.
This is not a new phenomenon. It almost always takes at least 50 years for a new political idea to triumph, sometimes more, as its older opponents die off and the young grow up with it. Global Warming was measured 53 years ago in ocean temperatures and insurance claims worldwide. It was first predicted in 1824, and many times after that.
Good News Thursday: The Fifty-Year Rule in Politics
Among other examples, I cited the 50-year campaign to end slavery in the British Empire, led by William Wilberforce (picture and quote above). It was about 50 years from Stonewall to Obergefell. Jim Crow lasted longer. The vote to release the Epstein files took less than a year, after decades of preparation. YMMV.
A future Cop, in Turkey next year, Ethiopia in 2027, and perhaps India in 2028, could opt to “recognise”, “welcome”, “acknowledge” or even – the strongest formulation – “adopt” the roadmap idea, giving it legal standing to please the purists.)
Detractors dismiss nonbinding initiatives as “coalitions of the willing” but, ultimately, climate progress comes from such coalitions – nobody can force countries to follow the Paris agreement, or other commitments, if their government decides not to. Just look at the US.
What matters in the climate crisis is not the legal status of words agreed over night-long sessions in windowless conference rooms. What will save us is real-world action. If enough countries display their intent to move away from fossil fuels, money will follow. Today, global investment in renewables is twice that of fossil fuels; a quarter of all new vehicles sold worldwide are electric; and half of the power-generating capacity of China and India is low-carbon.
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