Introduction
Here is another month showing the changes in how we generate electricity in the US of A. I have made some changes to the charts that I hope will make the information more clear. The first is the data shows trailing twelve months instead of month by month. I think this smooths the line and makes trends easier to see. The second is the use of “total solar” production, which is “utility scale” and “small scale” solar production combined. Before I just used the “utility scale” production because it was a bit easier to get the data but using “total solar” gives a more accurate picture.
Computer Changes
Another big change for me is that these charts are made using LibreOffice Calc instead of Microsoft Office Excel. I have been slowly changing to multiple operating system software and replacing MS Office is the last step before switching to Linux Mint. I have been using MS Office for decades so this is not an easy change but LibreOffice is very capable and I have made steady progress. MS Windows 10 will be my last MS operating system and, having used Microsoft software since MS-DOS 1.0 in 1980, this feels like losing an arm. I think that Linux is ready for me and vice versa so here I go again into the unknown.
Other software changes for me include Audacity, Shotcut, and FreeCad. All of them are very capable although FreeCad still has a ways to go in some areas (I have found work-arounds where needed and FreeCad is improving quickly).
The first chart shows the big six energy sources which cover 98% of the electricity generation in the USA. Coal usage is dropping in the usual bouncy line and natural gas usage seems to be leveling off. Also leveling off is wind generation as new installation continues to slow down in favor of solar PV.
Monthly Electricity
Current politics aside it is apparent that coal plant retirements can be replaced by solar PV installations. Coal fired generation is at 16% and we are adding about 1.5% per year of solar PV generation which gives roughly 12 years to total replacement in theory. In practice replacing all the coal fired plants with solar PV farms is more complicated because most of the coal powered plants are concentrated in the Eastern to Midwestern States.
In this chart I combine the big six into three groups. The percentage of electricity generated by burning fossil fuels continues to decrease and wind plus solar increases. I just wish the replacement rate was faster.
Capacity Changes
The planned additions map shows lots of solar and battery storage coming online. Both of the wind projects located offshore of Rhode Island and onshore in New Mexico and in limbo due to the current administration. The offshore wind makes lots of sense for the congested East Coast corridor as the wind is very strong and the area to install the generators is huge. As anyone who has swum around a lake dock knows the fish love those structures as habitat and the same applies to offshore wind platforms so I would think that the fishing industry would support more wind.
Texas is now the number one state for installing solar PV generation with California slipping to number two. The lack of installation activity west of the Mississippi River is concerning to me but that may be temporary. The increase in installations east of the Mississippi River is very encouraging, especially the Carolinas and Florida.
Keeping Coal Burning
Here is where the story gets complicated. This is the planned retirements chart and things look good. However, the current administration has directed the Dept. of Energy to keep one coal fired plant running and to give coal burning a lot of financial support.
The JH Campbell power plant in Western Michigan, owned by Consumer’s Energy, was set to retire in early 2025 — almost 15 years before the scheduled retirement. This is the last coal fired plant owned by Consumer’s Energy and everyone directly involved had approved the shutdown as Consumer’s Energy had purchased a Natural Gas fired power plant to replace JH Campbell. We are now in the third 90 day emergency order by the Department of Energy which forces Consumer’s Energy to continue operating the plant at a net loss of $615,000 per day. Several groups are challenging the orders in court but I don’t know when any decision will be delivered.
The current administration has made it clear that no more fossil fuel generating plants will be allowed to retire. More on this action in a future article but they seriously want to start building coal fired power plants and nuclear power plants to generate electricity for all the A.I. data centers and crypto mining centers that are planned. We must serve the billionaires and support their plans to replace us with AI workers (/s of course).
The potential good news is that new coal fired power plants can not be built in three years. The bad news is that a lot of damage could happen to the renewables transition in three years. We live in challenging times.
