In 1974, as the full extent of the Watergate cover-up scandal became known, the people awarded Nixon a -36% approval rating. No President since Gallup started polling has come close. But Trump is taking a run at it. At his inauguration, Gallup had him basically breaking even (-1%). Not bad. Unless you consider it was just 10 weeks since he had won an election. (ie. Not much of a honeymoon.)
Worse, that was his high point. Trump promised steak and cake. He delivered gruel. Make America Great Again? At this point, the average citizen is hoping the country can return to "Doing OK."
Harry Enten, CNN's data guru and poll analyst, looked at the numbers. He was stunned. And he offered some trenchant commentary:
"Look at this, in January, Donald Trump's net approval rating: not too bad, not too great. It was at minus one point, right within the margin of error, breaking even. But look at this now, negative 24 points. Way, way down! We're talking about a drop of over 20 points in the wrong direction for the president of the United States. Minus 24 points, that's a 23-point move in the incorrect direction if you're the president.
'So what,' the poll-jaded commentator might snort. 'It's only one poll. And polls suck anyway.' I feel their frustration. Elections, not polls, are the thing. However, let's tease out the good news. Enten points out that it isn't just one poll.
"And I should note, of course, it's not alone!"
Adding: "And of course, what's so important here, Sara Sidner, is it matches the trend that we've seen with other polls. That is Donald Trump hitting his low for the second term. I was doing the count last night. I think we're up to 10 polls in sort of the last 40 days, 10 different pollsters who have said that Trump is at the lowest point he is in his second term."
Enten then brings up the midterms. Trump, staying true to form, will try to insulate himself should the Republicans flop. He'll claim the results are nothing to him. He wasn't on the ballot. However, while his happy talk calms him, the congressional results next year could check Trump's worst ambitions. Enten knows this. He says,
"I mean, it's a disaster if it holds towards the midterm elections."
Why a disaster (for Trump)? Most obviously, because Republicans will lose the House, and with it the power of the purse. In addition, Democrats will have subpoena power to compel administration officials to appear before House committees. They might refuse. And the US will lurch toward a constitutional crisis — perhaps enabled by a Trump-friendly Supreme Court.
Yet if the administration blows off Congress, it still loses. People will want to know what they are hiding. The Democratic House will punish the administration for slow walking testimony by making the big ask — a demand for all the Epstein dirt. If there's one thing MAGA and the Left agree on, it's the need to expose child-trafficking pedophiles.
The difference is that MAGA thinks the criminal perverts are all Democrats. While Democrats accept that there could be some big-name teammates in the files. Both sides are playing politics. But only the Democrats understand that justice for all supersedes partisan niceties.
In addition, Trump's bottom-of-the-sewer poll numbers eviscerate his power over the GOP. Trump's low approval frees many GOP incumbents from their fear of a Trump-backed primary opponent. A Trump endorsement is no longer seen as an unalloyed benefit. In toss-up seats and even in many once 'safe' Republican seats, Trump's imprimatur is no longer the Holy Grail.
Enten adds historical context. He compares Trump to previous Presidents.
"The only one who's worse, either among Republicans or Democrats at this point of second term, is Richard Nixon."
Enten enumerates the issue by comparing Trump's results with those of previous Presidents' second terms.
- He [Nixon] was at minus 36 points.
- Trump at minus 24 points.
- George W. Bush, minus 19 points. His Republican Party, of course, suffered major losses in the 2006 midterm elections.
- Dwight Eisenhower, plus 31 points.
- Ronald Reagan at plus 41 points.
- It is also worse than Harry S. Truman.
- It's worse than Lyndon Baines Johnson.
- It's worse than Barack Obama.
- It's worse than Bill Clinton.
Anywhere you look, this is the second worst for a president of either party at this point in their second term, dating all the way back since the 1940s.
At this point, regardless of one's feelings about polls, it is hard to maintain that there is any good news for Trump. Irrespective of the absolute numbers, his decline is precipitous. And he no longer has his secret weapon. In Trump's first term and even as recently as 2024, polls underestimated the number of people who said they disapproved of the man but still voted for him.
However, pollsters factor in their mistakes. They took measures to more accurately measure the MAGAs. It looks like they were too successful. Election results vs. election predictions now favor Democrats. In 2025, polls consistently overestimated Republicans' potential performance in elections. The reports indicated the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey would be relatively close. They ended up being double-digit wins for the Democrats.
Trump has the power of the presidency. That's not illusory. But powerful presidents have had to negotiate with independent-minded legislatures, even when they are from the same party. Trump has not had to deal with that dilution of his sway. The never-Trumpers have all run away or been primaried out.
But then came the Epstein vote. And for the first time, the GOP's yes men and women said no to the guy. I doubt it was a one-off.
