You must be a republican if you believe that:
Public schools are an unnecessary government expense but prisons are not.
A minimum wage is a governmental intrusion in the private market but the oil depletion allowance for corporations to drill for oil off our coast is not.
Warrantless wiretapping of american citizens is constitutional, but a women’s right to choose is not.
Races exist but racism does not.
Torture is necessary for the defense of American freedom but the freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures is not.
Providing affordable healthcare for children and all Americans is a governmental interference with the private market but subsidies to defense contractors are not.
Environmental regulation diminishes our freedom, but racial profiling does not.
The earned income tax credit that rewards the lowest wage earners in the nation is an unwarranted redistribution of income, but lowering the capital gains credit on unearned investment income is not.
The illegal alien who risked everything to better himself economically by coming to america is a criminal, but the bankers and investors on wall street that gambled away your pension funds and put your jobs at risk are not.
That your ancestors who arrived in America before exclusionary immigration laws were passed were welcome contributors to the American nation, but those arriving after those laws were passed are not.
The Constitution of the United States created a Christian Nation but the First Amendment was a mistake.
God wrote Leviticus but Jesus did not preach the Sermon on the Mount.
The Second Amendment is the most important right in the Bill of Rights, but that the First Amendment is a mistake.
Bullies are manly but peacemakers are not.
By Trenz Pruca, who regrets to inform you that gravity still works in politics.
I. November: The Month Where Nothing Happens, and Everything Does
November is a peculiar month in American politics. It’s too late for sweeping legislative triumphs, too early for re-election panic, and too cold for photo-ops involving shirt sleeves and grinning bipartisanship. Thanksgiving intrudes. Relatives intrude. Weather intrudes. But through it all, the politics keeps moving — not forward, mind you, but sideways, like a crab with an inner-ear infection.
And here stands the Trump administration in its eleventh month:
not collapsing, not rising, simply drifting.
If October was political Sisyphus pushing a stone uphill, November was the stone rolling back down, stopping halfway, and shrugging:
“Eh. Good enough.”
No crisis broke him. No triumph lifted him. Inflation eased a little, but not enough to compensate for a year’s worth of sticker shock. The shutdown hangover persisted like a bad November gravy. A diplomatic moment in Gaza briefly made the president look like he’d found the foreign-policy switch on the dashboard… but domestic economics yanked the cord out of the wall again.
The result?
A presidency stuck in the low 40s, like a thermostat no one remembers setting.
II. The Numbers: Flat, Frosty, and Unchanging
Nationally, Trump remains lodged in the familiar range:
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40–43% approval
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52–57% disapproval
Like a stubborn winter cold, his ratings linger — not severe enough to hospitalize the administration, but persistent enough to keep the country grumpy and congested.
Key late-November polls:
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Reuters/Ipsos: 41% approve / 56% disapprove
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Economist/YouGov: 40% / 57%
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HarrisX: ~42% / 52%
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Silver Bulletin average: 42.8% / 54.1%
If democracy were an EKG, this would be classified as a “non-fatal but concerning rhythm.”
No rebound → because nothing good happened.
No collapse → because nothing catastrophic happened.
Just… American politics’ version of lukewarm coffee.
III. Independents: Still the Tarnished Silver Bullet
Since January, independents have been the central plotline of Trump’s political misery. Not hostile enough to form pitchfork committees, but consistently unimpressed. Throughout November:
But here’s the truth:
Independents don’t hate Trump as much as they hate the grocery bill.
And in a country where breakfast cereal requires a credit check, any president would struggle.
IV. Republicans: Welded On, If Slightly Warped
Every administration has a base. Trump’s base, however, does not resemble the usual “supporters.” They are an alloy. A thermoplastic polymer. Possibly a geological formation.
November Republican approval: 89–90%.
Even welding requires airflow, but the Trump base shows no such need.
The hairline cracks are there — mostly among suburban fiscal conservatives who dislike both grocery prices and domestic deployments — but they are hairline at best. More cosmetic than structural.
V. Democrats: Winning the Normalcy Contest, Losing the Excitement Game
Democrats remain the political equivalent of dental hygiene: everyone agrees it's important, but no one wakes up eager to floss.
National favorability numbers in November have them slightly less disliked than the GOP… just not enough to brag about at the holiday table.
A typical American voter, when asked about the Democrats, now responds with:
“Look, I don’t hate them. I’m just too tired to like anyone.”
Which is, ironically, the most stable platform the party has had since 2009.
VI. Issue by Issue: The Turkey Didn’t Save Him
Economy — Net approval: –18 to –27
Inflation eased a hair, but not enough to inspire parades. Prices feel less like a spiral and more like a plateau shaped by a sadist.
Immigration — Net: –10 to –12
Every administration that promises “control” eventually learns that the border is not a switch but a dimmer dial taped to a disco strobe.
Foreign Policy — Net: –1 to +2
A cease-fire bump in Gaza briefly made Trump look like he’d found a responsible foreign-policy advisor. It evaporated upon contact with domestic reality.
Shutdown Aftermath — Still negative
Like leftover cranberry sauce, the public found it unappetizing, and no amount of reheating helped.
VII. November Mood: A Nation of Shrugging Shoulders
Across nearly every poll, focus group, and field interview, the November mood condensed into one simple idea:
“Fine. Everything still costs too much. Stop yelling.”
Not rage.
Not enthusiasm.
Just broad, bipartisan fatigue.
In a strange way, this mood benefits Trump — people too exhausted to care often default to incumbency — but it also threatens him. A lethargic electorate is unpredictable. A lethargic electorate can decide not to vote.
And November’s lethargy could fill a warehouse.
VIII. What the Trendline Says (Spoiler: Nothing Good)
Month by month, Trump’s approval in 2025 looks like the electrocardiogram of someone who fell asleep during their own stress test:
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Jan: Hope + confetti
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Feb: Honeymoon sugar high
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Mar: Tariff nerves
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Apr: Domestic troops — the great dampener
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May–Jun: Stabilization
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Jul: Lava pit
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Aug: Inflation hardens
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Sep: Shutdown brinkmanship
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Oct: Flatline fatigue
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Nov: Slightly warmer flatline fatigue
The shape resembles a ski slope designed by a drunk civil engineer: down, down, wobble, flat, wobble, flat.
IX. What November Really Tells Us
Three things:
1. Trump’s ceiling is real.
Low 40s is the new normal.
2. The public’s patience has the tensile strength of wet pasta.
Voters are exhausted, economically sore, and unimpressed.
3. The Democrats still have no compelling story beyond “we’re not him.”
True, but insufficient.
This leaves us with the national sentiment thermometer:
Temperature: Tepid.
Mood: Irritated.
Forecast: Uncertain with a chance of fireworks.
X. Final Verdict
If momentum matters, November had none.
If mood matters, November groaned.
If democracy relies on political enthusiasm, someone should check the patient’s pulse.
A presidency not collapsing, but not inspiring.
A country tired, expensive to live in, and allergic to drama.
And Democrats: somehow still losing the enthusiasm game to a man who hasn’t jogged in 50 years.
America in November 2025:
“We’re tired. Everything costs too much. Please stop.”
December 2025: A TPJ Pre-Analysis Preview
The month where politics tries to matter again, and the public tries to care again.
I. December’s Fundamental Political Truth
Every December presidency operates under one iron law:
Americans in December are too busy, too broke, too tired, or too drunk to meaningfully shift public opinion.
It is the month when even political junkies secretly hope for a slow news cycle so they can buy gifts for grandchildren, argue with spouses about travel plans, or catastrophize about eggnog calories.
For Donald Trump, this dynamic cuts both ways:
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It reduces the risk of a major approval crash, because nobody has the bandwidth to digest another scandal.
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It also prevents any meaningful rebound, because nobody has the bandwidth to reward him either.
December is political Velcro:
everything sticks for a moment, then slides off into the carpet.
II. The Likely Landscape: Frozen Numbers, Warm Rhetoric, Cold Reality
Approval
Expect Trump’s approval to remain locked in its 40–43% winter cabin.
Even a major policy announcement probably won’t move it. December polling notoriously captures more holiday stress than civic engagement. Poll respondents frequently answer political questions while:
As far as data quality goes, December is the Bermuda Triangle with tinsel.
Disapproval
Expect 53–56% disapproval — steady, high, but not worsening.
Americans in December reserve their strongest disapproval for:
The president is merely fourth on the list.
III. Key Pressures That Might Stir the Snowdrift
1. The “Holiday Economy Effect”
Retailers are panicking. Consumers are exhausted. Corporate earnings calls in early December might include terms like:
If prices blip upward again — especially holiday staples — Trump will take the blame, but no immediate polling effect is likely until January.
2. Shutdown Aftershocks
The semi-resolved shutdown still hangs over Washington like a stale fruitcake.
If Congress fails to “clean up” remaining fiscal messes, expect:
3. Foreign Policy Wildcards
December is historically a month where presidents do end-of-year foreign-policy theatrics. Think:
Trump may attempt one. It may temporarily dominate the news.
It will not move poll numbers.
Foreign policy rarely penetrates the December consumer-brain haze.
IV. What His Advisors Will Tell Him
Internally, Trump’s team will push three narratives:
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“Play it safe.”
No dramatic announcements.
No new tariffs.
No “national crackdown on something nobody asked for.”
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“Stage a holiday good-will moment.”
Possibilities include pardoning turkeys already eaten,
touring factories nobody’s heard of,
or declaring victory over something that hasn’t happened yet.
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“Blame Democrats for everything.”
But lightly.
Voters don’t want screaming in December; they want coupons.
V. What Democrats Should Be Doing (But Probably Won’t)
December is a rare month when political messaging has an opening:
Voters’ guard is down. The performative outrage dial is turned off.
People are in a reflective mood.
Perfect opportunity for:
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coherent economic messaging
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positive stories about Biden-era infrastructure finally being implemented
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a vision statement that sounds less like a TED Talk and more like a reason to leave the house and vote
But Democrats in December tend to behave like a committee arguing over which brand of printer paper symbolizes justice.
Expect:
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a smattering of press releases
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some earnest white papers
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and a relentless, admirable, utterly forgettable competence
VI. Independent Voters in December: The Grinch Demographic
Independents are:
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irritated by December costs
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cynical about December political theater
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grateful for any day without a Trump outburst
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largely unreachable except through receipts and interest rates
If turkey prices dip or wages tick up slightly, they will grudgingly acknowledge it.
If rent spikes again, they will blame the nearest politician.
December’s political sigma rule:
Independents don’t reward political performance in December.
They only punish economic disappointment.
VII. The December Narrative That Might Actually Matter
There is one storyline that could meaningfully shape January numbers:
“Is the economy turning the corner or stalling out?”
If analysts start predicting a 2026 slowdown, Trump will enter the election year with:
If instead consumer sentiment improves slightly, he may begin January from a less vulnerable position — not strong, but less brittle.
But December is not the month that reveals the answer.
It merely sets the emotional tone for January.
VIII. The TPJ December Forecast
Here is your political weather outlook:
Approval: 40–43%
Disapproval: 53–56%
Mood: Nationally irritable; regionally overwhelmed
Trend: Still flat
Risk Factor: Unplanned Trump improvisation (always an x-factor)
Opportunity: Democrats telling a coherent holiday story (unlikely, but possible)
Wildcards: OPEC, Fed signals, Gaza negotiations, a rogue tariff announcement, or milk prices
And the TPJ-style summary:
“December is not the month where Trump loses the presidency.
It’s the month where he fails to improve his odds of winning it.”
IX. Final TPJ Take: December in One Sentence
A presidency drifting into year’s end, a country too tired to notice, and a Democratic Party staring at the tree lights muttering, ‘We really should be doing better than this.’”
