After a strong showing in a special election in deep red Tennessee, Democrats are bullish on “running up the score.” The national party announced that Crane’s district is one of nine races where they see a clearer path to victory. They are redoubling their commitment to flip that seat.
In Tennessee, Democrat Aftyn Behn ended up losing by single digits (8.8 points) to Republican Matt Van Epps in TN-7 on Tuesday in a District that in 2024, Trump won by 22.3 points and Republican Congressman Mark Green won by 21.5 points
Using the presidential numbers, the Democrats overperformed by 13.5 points. Using the last Congressional numbers, Behn overperformed by 12.7 points.
Also, unlike other special elections, it was not a "flukey result" based on low turnout. ~180K voters cast their ballots in the TN-7 Special Election in 2025. Coincidentally, 180k Votes were cast in TN-7 in the 2022 Midterm Elections House race for the same seat, so Behn's overperformance was accomplished with a "full midterm electorate turning out to vote in a race that was nationalized in the closing week, with Trump, Mike Johnson, Kamala Harris and AOC all getting involved at some level". That is why Republicans are very nervous going into 2026.
What does it mean for Eli Crane? Well, take 12.7 percent from his margin (Crane won by 9.0) in 2024 and he loses by 3.7 points in 2025. Take 13.5 points from Trump's AZ2 margin in 2024 (He won by 15.0) and it's basically just a Trump +1.5 point District in this "new normal".
This is the current political environment. Eli Crane's political advantage in AZ2 has potentially eroded to next to nothing. We can't predict exactly what will happen, but the Trump administration seems incapable of course correcting so its odds of turning the environment back in its favor isn't great. Crane is one of many members who are increasingly vulnerable and American Eagle PAC can capitalize on the GOP’s weakness to pull more Republicans and Independents into voting against him.
We have a district-wide meeting in Prescott on Dec. 13-14 to explain how we can win the district. There are two campaigns working on the race. Arizona Eagle PAC is letting residents know how completely Crane is failing them. And on a positive note, Jonathan Nez, former president of the Navajo Nation, is letting residents know how strongly he will represent them in Congress.
It is amazing how quickly and completely the Trump machine failed. I think we should look at it in this context. The administration’s Sloth, Incompetence, Hate, Greed, Hubris, along with rising Food Costs and Healthcare Cuts will cause the collapse of the GOP.
That the Trump administration is more than lazy and incompetent is pretty evident. Trump’s hubris is evident when Trump campaigns for the Nobel Peace Prize, claims the greatest economy, etc., etc. His platform is built on hate. There is no place for women, blacks, Natives or Hispanics.
Just an anecdote: Native Americans pay gasoline taxes just like all Arizonans. The federal government has treaty obligations to help them with their infrastructure. Crane made an announcement that he had done some paperwork so that Native Americans can dig dirt from their own lands to build roads. I wonder if Biggs would suggest to Gilbert residents to do the same.
Back on track: Rising food costs are slamming everyone in the district and the country. The administration’s messing with Food Stamps means that some people can’t eat. They don’t just face food insecurity. They are hungry.
Trump and his pals have demonstrated greed on an unprecedented scale. The collapse of his crypto scams show how out-of-touch and how little he cares about normal people.
Crane voted to slash healthcare funding. His district has a lot of people who need healthcare funding.
Is it any wonder that people are not supporting the GOP? Please help put us over the top with a generous contribution to
Arizona Eagle PAC.
Eli Crane voted to add $3 trillion to the national debt, not a good fit for the Barry Goldwater country of Yavapai County. He offered no plan to repay the money, meaning Americans will have to pay $150 billion a year in interest forever.
In listing the Trump/Crane sins in the headline, the format did not allow room to include lechery, avarice, a lust for new foreign wars and a desire to destroy Democracy.
Some other black marks against Crane:
--He recently flipped from supporting release of the Epstein files to opposing release, then double flipped to support release.
--Crane does not live in his district. He can’t be bothered to distribute his allotted community funds to projects in his district, allowing the money to go to other states.
--He obstinately refuses to meet with constituents.
--Billionaires keep Crane in office because he votes for their interests and against his constituents.
--Crane devastates Arizona farmers and ranchers by supporting the bailout of Argentina at the expense of U.S. Agriculture,
--Crane supports illegal tariffs that are raising the price of food for Americans and ruining our economy.
