What with Trump showing increasing signs of dementia and general physical deterioration, thought naturally turns to the question of what would happen if he cannot complete the three years remaining in his term?
The obvious answer is that the Vice President would ascend to the top spot.
A lot of people are afraid of J.D. Vance as President, and it is certainly an unsavory prospect: he seems to be a sociopathic opportunist, and he’s aligned with techno-oligarch billionaires. Some fear that Vance would be more dangerous than Trump because Vance is smart and strategic in ways that Trump is not. Whereas Trump is driven by his impulses (like vindictiveness) and his bizarre ideas (like about tariffs), Vance would be coolly calculating and less likely to self-destruct.
I agree that we should deeply hope we never have to hear the phrase “President Vance.” But here is a reason why Vance would be less dangerous than many seem to think: he would not have nearly the power that Trump has been wielding.
Here’s Trump’s “superpower,” which Vance will never possess:
Trump has had complete control of virtually every Republican in Congress.
That has been true since late 2017. And this year — with Republicans controlling both houses — it has been disastrously true: not only has Trump had the power of the presidency, but effectively the power of Congress as well. One-man rule.
Trump has that control because he can end their political careers.
He has done it repeatedly — from Jeff Flake to Liz Cheney, with others in between. Every Republican understands that the cost of defying Trump is likely forced retirement.
And Trump can kill them politically because of his hold on THE REPUBLICAN BASE — which will replace any Republican he targets.
That is the source of his true power. It is the unprecedented combination of (1) a cult-like hold on millions of Americans and (2) an authoritarian impulse to intimidate and punish anyone who stands in his way. No previous president in American history has had that mix — and the result has been an extraordinary concentration of political power in one man.
And J.D. Vance shows no sign whatever that he has, or ever will have, anything like that kind of charismatic command over the Republican base.
If Vance cannot turn the base against any Republican politician he chooses, then Republicans in Congress will no longer be the rubber stamp they’ve been for Trump. Under a President Vance, they would not be bullied into absurdities like appointing a Hegseth as Secretary of “War” or RFK Jr. as Secretary of HHS or passively accepting blatantly illegal tariff schemes.
Vance will not have the juice to replace Trump as dictator of the Republican world.
